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image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Journal of Forecasti...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
Journal of Forecasting
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
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HyperVIX: A GWO‐Optimized ARIMA‐LSTM Hybrid Model for CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) Forecasting

Authors: Ran Wu; Abdullahi D. Ahmed; Mohammad Zoynul Abedin; Hongjun Zeng;

HyperVIX: A GWO‐Optimized ARIMA‐LSTM Hybrid Model for CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) Forecasting

Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper introduced HyperVIX, a novel hybrid framework that integrates ARIMA modeling, LSTM neural networks, and Gray Wolf Optimizer (GWO) to forecast the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX). Using a multilayered approach, HyperVIX first employs ARIMA to capture linear time series patterns, followed by LSTM networks that model the residuals to identify complex nonlinear relationships. The GWO algorithm optimizes the LSTM hyperparameters, enhancing the framework's ability to capture Volatility Index (VIX)'s intricate dynamics. Empirical analysis demonstrates that HyperVIX significantly outperforms both traditional and contemporary financial forecasting models in terms of accuracy and robustness. Compared to single models, HyperVIX achieves approximately 15%, 12%, and 10% improvements in root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) metrics respectively, with the R 2 value increasing by about 5%. Notably, the model exhibits exceptional performance during extreme market volatility periods, making it particularly valuable for risk management applications. This research contributes to the literature by providing an innovative and effective method for VIX forecasting while offering valuable insights for financial market volatility analysis and investment strategy optimization.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Top 10%
Average
Average
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