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Journal of Forecasting
Article . 2022
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Journal of Forecasting
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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Research . 2021
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Forecasting realized volatility of international REITs: The role of realized skewness and realized kurtosis

The Role of Realized Skewness and Realized Kurtosis
Authors: Matteo Bonato; Oguzhan Cepni; Rangan Gupta; Christian Pierdzioch;

Forecasting realized volatility of international REITs: The role of realized skewness and realized kurtosis

Abstract

AbstractWe use an international dataset on 5‐min interval intraday data covering nine leading markets and regions to construct measures of realized volatility, realized jumps, realized skewness, and realized kurtosis of returns of international Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) over the daily period of September 2008 to August 2020. We study out‐of‐sample the predictive value of realized skewness and realized kurtosis for realized volatility over and above realized jumps, where we also differentiate between measures of “good” realized volatility and “bad” realized volatility. We find that realized skewness and realized kurtosis significantly improve forecasting performance at a daily, weekly, and monthly forecast horizon and that their contribution to forecasting performance outweighs in terms of significance the contribution of realized jumps. Our results have important implications for investors and policymakers.

Country
Denmark
Keywords

International data, Realized volatility, REITs, Forecasting

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    influence
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
39
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
hybrid