
doi: 10.1002/for.2454
In this paper, we introduce the functional coefficient to heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility (HAR‐RV) models to make the parameters change over time. A nonparametric statistic is developed to perform a specification test. The simulation results show that our test displays reliable size and good power. Using the proposed test, we find a significant time variation property of coefficients to the HAR‐RV models. Time‐varying parameter (TVP) models can significantly outperform their constant‐coefficient counterparts for longer forecasting horizons. The predictive ability of TVP models can be improved by accounting for VIX information. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
specification test, Economic time series analysis, autoregressive volatility model, nonparametric statistic, Nonparametric hypothesis testing, Applications of statistics to economics
specification test, Economic time series analysis, autoregressive volatility model, nonparametric statistic, Nonparametric hypothesis testing, Applications of statistics to economics
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