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Futures & Foresight Science
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
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Aaltodoc Publication Archive
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
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Research.fi
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
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Supporting Scenario‐Based Decision‐Making With Multi‐Objective Optimization

Authors: Pekka Korhonen; Juuso Liesiö; Aapo Siljamäki; Jyrki Wallenius;

Supporting Scenario‐Based Decision‐Making With Multi‐Objective Optimization

Abstract

ABSTRACT Scenarios are commonly used to support decision‐making by evaluating how each decision alternative performs in each scenario. These evaluations are then used to identify the preferred alternative in view of all scenarios. Many suggested approaches interpret scenarios as mutually exclusive states, which enables the use of subjective expected utility (SEU) to aggregate the scenario‐specific performance but requires estimates on the scenario probabilities. Other approaches treat scenarios as attributes and utilize multi‐attribute value theory (MAVT) to capture alternatives' overall performance, in which case both the likelihood and importance of scenarios are captured by attribute weights. In this paper, we establish a series of theoretical results demonstrating that Pareto optimality serves as a noncontroversial solution concept for both approaches and thus propose using the alternatives' performances in each scenario as the objective functions of a multi‐objective optimization model. This allows the use of existing multi‐objective optimization approaches, such as Pareto Race and robust portfolio modeling, to support the decision‐maker in identifying the preferred alternative. The use of multi‐objective optimization avoids the difficult task of eliciting scenario probabilities. We illustrate our ideas with a small‐scale example and a scenario‐based foresight application, with data from a real‐world application.

Country
Finland
Related Organizations
Keywords

decision analysis, multiple criteria decision-making, multi-objective optimization, scenarios

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
Green
gold