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Engineering Reports
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Engineering Reports
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Engineering Reports
Article . 2019
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Probabilistic modeling and analysis of sequential cyber‐attacks

Authors: Qisi Liu; Liudong Xing; Chencheng Zhou;

Probabilistic modeling and analysis of sequential cyber‐attacks

Abstract

Security is one of the major challenges for promoting the computer industry. Existing models for assessing security have mostly assumed that different hazards causing the security breach are independent of each other. Dependencies however can exist among different hazardous actions and they may affect the system security attribute greatly. This paper advances the state of the art in quantitative security risk assessment by modeling one such dependency, where multiple sequence‐dependent hazardous actions are performed to launch a successful security cyber‐attack. Continuous‐time Markov chain and semi‐Markov process–based methods are proposed to estimate the occurrence probability of a security risk for systems undergoing the sequential cyber‐attacks. While the CTMC method is limited to the exponential state transition time, the proposed semi‐Markov process–based approach is applicable to analyzing attacks with any arbitrary types of transition time distributions. Both methods are illustrated using case studies where Trojan attacks in the banking application are modeled and analyzed.

Keywords

continuous‐time Markov chain (CTMC), quantitative assessment, Electronic computers. Computer science, sequential dependence, semi‐Markov process (SMP), security risk, QA75.5-76.95, TA1-2040, Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General), attack tree

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    12
    popularity
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    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
12
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
gold