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Ecology and Evolution
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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PubMed Central
Article . 2025
License: CC BY
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Climate Change Drives the Distribution of Insect Vectors for GLRaV ‐3 on a Global Scale

Authors: Minmin Niu; Yunyun Lu; Boxiang Zhao; Fengxia Dong; Junfei Bi; Pengfei Jing; Kangjie Wang; +3 Authors

Climate Change Drives the Distribution of Insect Vectors for GLRaV ‐3 on a Global Scale

Abstract

ABSTRACT Grapevine leafroll‐associated virus 3 (GLRaV‐3) is a significant plant virus affecting grapevines worldwide, causing considerable economic losses. Soft scale insects (Coccidae) serve as key vectors for GLRaV‐3 transmission. Understanding how climate change impacts the distribution of these vector species is crucial for improving grapevine disease management strategies. Despite previous studies focusing on other insect vectors, limited research has been conducted on soft scale species, especially in the context of climate change. This study addresses the research gap by predicting the future global distribution of soft scale species responsible for GLRaV‐3 transmission under various climate change scenarios. The potential distribution of seven soft scale species was analyzed using the MaxEnt model. Data on species occurrence were gathered from global biodiversity databases, and key environmental variables were identified using principal component analysis. Climate projections were incorporated using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) under four future timeframes (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, 2090s). The model indicated that temperature plays a critical role in limiting soft scale distribution, with projections showing a northward shift in distribution for several species under climate change. Three species are expected to expand their range, while the remaining four may see a reduction in suitable habitat. These shifts suggest potential changes in GLRaV‐3 transmission risk in key grapevine‐growing regions. This research provides vital insights into the future distribution of GLRaV‐3 vectors, helping to guide targeted surveillance and management strategies. By predicting potential outbreak areas, this study contributes to the proactive management of grapevine diseases under changing climatic conditions.

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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
gold
Related to Research communities
Italian National Biodiversity Future Center