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Canadian Journal of Statistics
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2024
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Hidden Markov graphical models with state‐dependent generalized hyperbolic distributions

Authors: Beatrice Foroni; Luca Merlo; Lea Petrella;

Hidden Markov graphical models with state‐dependent generalized hyperbolic distributions

Abstract

Abstract In this article, we develop a novel hidden Markov graphical model to investigate time‐varying interconnectedness between different financial markets. To identify conditional correlation structures under varying market conditions and accommodate shape features embedded in financial time series, we rely upon the generalized hyperbolic family of distributions with time‐dependent parameters evolving according to a latent Markov chain. We exploit its location‐scale mixture representation to build a penalized EM algorithm for estimating the state‐specific sparse precision matrices by means of an penalty. The proposed approach leads to regime‐specific conditional correlation graphs that allow us to identify different degrees of network connectivity of returns over time. The methodology's effectiveness is validated through simulation exercises under different scenarios. In the empirical analysis, we apply our model to daily returns of a large set of market indices, cryptocurrencies and commodity futures over the period 2017–2023.

Country
Italy
Keywords

Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Computer and information sciences, FOS: Economics and business, Statistical Finance (q-fin.ST), Quantitative Finance - Statistical Finance, Cryptocurrencies; EM algorithm; financial networks; generalized hyperbolic family; hidden Markov models, Statistics - Methodology

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
Green
hybrid