
doi: 10.1002/cjg2.432
AbstractWe study stress transfer and triggering of large earthquakes along the East Kunlun fault system, northern Tibetan Plateau. Five M ≥7 earthquakes occurred along the fault zone during the past 70 years are considered: the 1937 M7.5 Huashi Canyon, the 1963 MS7.1 Dulan, the 1973 MS7.3 Manyi, the 1997 MS7.5 Manyi, and the 2001 MW7.8 Kokoxili earthquakes. We simulate stress evolution process produced by seismic dislocation in layered viscoelastic media, and calculate Coulomb failure stress change on the fault plane of each subsequent earthquake. The result shows that the Coulomb failure stress on the fault plane of the Kokoxili earthquake was increased by the previous 4 earthquakes, and viscoelastic relaxation gradually enhanced the Coulomb failure stress field as time elapsed. By evaluating Coulomb failure stress change produced by coseismic rupture and viscoelastic relaxation of the 4 preceding large earthquakes, we find that Coulomb failure stress change produced by viscoelastic relaxation is much more significant than that produced by coseismic deformation in 3 of the 4 earthquakes. The stress field simulation indicates that after the Kokoxili earthquake Coulomb failure stress in the Xidatan‐Dongdatan segment (between the Kokoxili and Dulan segments) of the East Kunlun fault is increased as much as 0.05~0.10MPa, implying significantly increased earthquake potential in this region.
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