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Geophysical Research Letters
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
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Geophysical Research Letters
Article . 2016
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On the emergence of rainfall extremes from ordinary events

Authors: Zorzetto, E.; BOTTER, GIANLUCA; MARANI, MARCO;

On the emergence of rainfall extremes from ordinary events

Abstract

AbstractThe analysis and estimation of extreme event occurrences is a central problem in many fields of geoscience. Advancements in the study of extreme events have recently been limited, arguably in connection with asymptotic assumptions in the traditional extreme value theory (EVT) and with its focusing on a small fraction of the available observations representing the tail properties of the underlying event generation process. Here we develop a Metastatistical Extreme Value framework (MEV) which relaxes limiting assumptions at the basis of the traditional EVT and accounts for the full distribution of the underlying “ordinary” events. We apply this general approach to the relevant case of daily rainfall and find that the MEV approach reduces the uncertainty in the estimation of high‐quantile extremes by up to 50% with respect to the classical EVT. The improved predictive power of the MEV framework is connected with its recognizing that extremes emerge from repeated sampling of ordinary events, thereby being able to use all available observations.

Country
Italy
Related Organizations
Keywords

metastatistics, QC801-809, rainfall, Geophysics. Cosmic physics, extremes

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
106
Top 1%
Top 10%
Top 10%
gold