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The Madden‐Julian Oscillation in a warmer world

Authors: Chang, Chiung-Wen June; Tseng, Wan-Ling; Huang-Hsiung, Hsu; Keenlyside, Noel; Tsuang, Ben-Jei;

The Madden‐Julian Oscillation in a warmer world

Abstract

AbstractGlobal warming's impact on the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is assessed using one of the few models capable in reproducing its key features. In a warmer climate predicted for the end of the century, the MJO increases in amplitude (by ~30%) and frequency, showing a more circumglobal propagation tendency. The MJO spatial extent becomes enhanced, deeper, and more zonally extended but meridionally confined. A stronger vertical tilting structure in diabatic heating, moisture, and convergence fields is seen. Our findings indicate that these changes result from an intensification of the frictional wave‐conditional instability of the second kind mechanism via the coupling of dynamical and thermodynamic response to the warming. The warming and moistening of the mean state contribute to the enhanced deep convective heating, driving a stronger‐forced Kelvin wave‐like perturbation. This reinforces the frictional low‐level convergence, leading to larger shallow convective heating and therefore to a faster development and enhancement of the deep convection in the MJO.

Countries
Norway, Taiwan
Keywords

climate change, 550, Madden-Julian Oscillation, 551

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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
52
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
gold