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Insights into the demographic window of opportunity and demographic dividend: a conceptual overview

Authors: Şoldan, E.;

Insights into the demographic window of opportunity and demographic dividend: a conceptual overview

Abstract

Демографический дивиденд ndash; это концептуальная установка, согласно которой изменения в возрастной структуре населения могут положительно сказаться на экономическом развитии. Концептуально демографический дивиденд является сложным понятием, и несмотря на то, что прошло более двух десятилетий после его появления подходы к его интерпретации, существенно различаются. В данной статье представлен обзор литературы по демографическому дивиденду, чтобы получить дополнительные сведения для понимания концепции демографического дивиденда и его связи с термином quot;демографическое окно возможностейquot;. В анализе литературы использовался эволюционный подход, включающий обзор определений концепта quot;демографический дивидендquot; и методологий его оценки. Были рассмотрены два различных подхода к демографическому дивиденду ndash; демографический и экономический, а также проанализированы два показателя его оценки ndash; традиционный коэффициент демографической поддержки и экономический коэффициент поддержки. Результаты мета-анализа подтверждают предположение о том, что демографический дивиденд и демографическое окно возможностей ndash; две разные концепции, взаимосвязанных, но не взаимозаменяемых. Для анализа демографического дивиденда показатель коэффициента демографической поддержки так же необходим, как и показатель экономической поддержки, что имеет существенное значение для разработки политики на уровне страны с целью использования демографического дивиденда. Делается вывод о том, что важно разделять quot;окно возможностейquot;, создаваемое демографическими изменениями, и rdquo;демографический дивидендrdquo; ndash; положительный экономический результат этих изменений. Использование термина quot;окно возможностейquot;, непосредственно связанного с демографическим дивидендом, позволит создать интегративную структуру, необходимую для определения путей достижения позитивного демографического влияния на экономическое развитие.

Dividendul demografic prezintă cadrul conceptual prin care schimbările în structura de vârstă a populației pot avea efecte pozitive asupra dezvoltării economice. Cu toate acestea, dividendul demografic este un concept complex și, după mai bine de două decenii de la crearea sa, abordările în interpretarea acestuia rămân diverse. În această lucrare este prezentată analiza literaturii de specialitate cu privire la dividendul demografic, cu scopul reflecției științifice a conceptului de dividend demografic și a relației acestuia cu termenul său interconecta ndash; fereastra demografică de oportunitate. Analiza literaturii de specialitate a fost efectuată după o abordare evolutivă, incluzând o examinare a definițiilor conceptului dividendul demografic și a metodologiilor de evaluare a acestuia. Au fost discutate două moduri diferite de abordare a dividendul demografic, cel demografic și cel economic, precum și a doi indicatori principali - rata de suport demografică și rata de suport economică. Rezultatele analizei au confirmat ipoteza dividendului demografic și a ferestrei de oportunitate demografică ca fiind două concepte distincte ndash; deși interconectate, nu sunt substituibile. De asemenea, pentru analiza dividendului demografic, indicatorul ratei de suport demografică este la fel de necesar ca și rata de suport economică, influențând procesul de elaborare a politicilor la nivel național pentru realizarea dividendului demografic. Se concluzionează că este important de a distinge între conceptul de fereastra de oportunitate care este creată de schimbările demografice și dividendul demografic ndash; rezultatul economic pozitiv al acestor schimbări. Utilizarea conceptului de fereastră de oportunitate, direct legată de dividendul demografic, ar crea cadrul integrator necesar pentru a identifica pârghiile prin care schimbările demografice influențează pozitiv dezvoltarea economică.

The demographic dividend presents the conceptual framework through which changes in the population#39;s age structure positively affect economic development. However, the demographic dividend is a complex concept, and, more than two decades after its inception, approaches remain diverse. This paper presents a literature analysis on the demographic dividend to understand the concept of the demographic dividend and its relationship to its interrelated term ndash; the demographic window of opportunity. The literature analysis was undertaken following an evolutionary approach, including an examination of definitions of the demographic dividend and methodologies for its assessment. Two different approaches to view the demographic dividend, the demographic and the economic, were discussed, as well as the two indicators ndash; the demographic support rate and the economic support rate. The results of the analysis confirmed the presumption of the demographic dividend and the demographic window of opportunity as being two distinct concepts ndash; mutually interrelated but not substitutable. Also, for the analysis of the demographic dividend, the demographic support ratio indicator is as necessary as the economic support ratio, influencing the policy ndash; making process at the national level in achieving the demographic dividend. The study underlines the importance of distinguishing between the concept of the window of opportunity that is created by demographic change and the demographic dividend ndash; the positive economic outcome of these changes. Employing the concept of a window of opportunity, directly linked to the demographic dividend, would create the integrative framework needed to identify the pathways of positive demographic influence on economic development.

Country
Moldova (Republic of)
Related Organizations
Keywords

demographic dividend, fereastră demografică de oportunitate, dividend demografic, rata de suport, economic development, политика, politici, dezvoltare economică, policies, демографическое окно возможностей, demographic window of opportunity, коэффициент поддержки, экономическое развитие, support ratio, демографический дивиденд

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green