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Влияние гелиогеофизических циклов на частоту возникновения инсультов в Барнауле

Влияние гелиогеофизических циклов на частоту возникновения инсультов в Барнауле

Abstract

The correlation between the solar activity dynamics and season of the year with a frequency of brain attacks at men and women groups during 2009 in Barnaul was studied. In investigation the following analyses have been used: the correlation analysis allowing to establish a connection measure between the signs, the crosscorrelation analysis allowing to establish a connection measure between signs taking into account logs (the periods of a delay or an advancing of events by comparison of temporary ranks) and the cross-spectral analysis allowing to reveal strongly correlating frequency in temporary ranks, that is interference of oscillatory processes and their coherence (coordination of frequencies) on indicators of determination coefficients. For coefficient of coherence its value which isn›t belittling 0,44 units was considered as threshold value. It is shown that in the winter and in the summer the tendency to positive connection between compared processes, and in the spring and in the autumn inverse proportion is observed. Compared temporary ranks have the general rhythmic components: mostly the frequency synchronization of processes is expressed for the periods of 121,3; 45,5; 15,2; 7,4; 5,8; 4,5; 3,4 and 2,3 days. The periods of the brain attacks risk irrespectively from sex increases in summer, winter and especially autumn seasons of the year. Spring is an optimum time.

Исследуется взаимосвязь динамики солнечной активности и сезона года с частотой возникновения инсультов у мужчин и женщин в Барнауле в течение 2009 г. Использованы корреляционный анализ, позволяющий установить меру связи между признаками, кросскорреляционный анализ для установления меры связи между признаками с учетом лагов (периодов задержки или опережения событий при сопоставлении временных рядов), и кросспектральный анализ для выявления сильно коррелирующих периодичностей во временны́х рядах, т.е. взаимовлияния колебательных процессов и их когерентности (согласование частот) по показателям коэффициентов детерминации. Пороговым значением для коэффициента когерентности считалось его значение, не принижающее 0,44 ед. Показано, что зимой и летом наблюдается тенденция к положительной связи между сравниваемыми процессами, а весной и осенью к обратно пропорциональной. Сравниваемые временны́е ряды имеют общие ритмические составляющие: в наибольшей мере частотная синхронизация процессов выражена для периодов 121,3; 45,5; 15,2; 7,4; 5,8; 4,5; 3,4 и 2,3 суток. Периодами риска возникновения инсульта, независимо от пола, в порядке возрастания являются летний, зимний и особенно осенний сезоны года. Весна наиболее благоприятное для здоровья человека время.

Keywords

ГЕОГЕЛИОФИЗИЧЕСКАЯ АКТИВНОСТЬ, ЧАСТОТА ВОЗНИКНОВЕНИЯ ИНСУЛЬТОВ, СЕЗОН И МЕСЯЦЫ ГОДА

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
gold