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Оценка точности экономических прогнозов: вопросы методики

Оценка точности экономических прогнозов: вопросы методики

Abstract

Вопросы качества экономических прогнозов приобретают статус приоритетных при принятии управленческих решений, так как от качества прогнозов напрямую зависит выполнение плановых показателей. В данной статье отражены вопросы оценки качества прогнозов: приведены критерии качества прогноза, описаны принципы, относительно которых следует оценивать объекты прогнозирования и методы определения точности количественного прогноза.

Quality issues economic forecasts become priority in decision making because of the quality of predictions depends directly on the performance targets. In this article, the assessment of the quality of predictions: the forecast quality criteria, describes the principles, on which to evaluate objects forecasting and quantitative methods to determine the accuracy of the forecast.

Keywords

ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ, КАЧЕСТВО ПРОГНОЗА, ТОЧНОСТЬ ПРОГНОЗА, ПРИНЦИП ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ, КОЛИЧЕСТВЕННЫЙ ПРОГНОЗ

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average