International migration of population is one of the most important processes in the modern world. Without the contribution of international migration on demographic development of developed countries (including Russia), population of that countries, especially in working age, will inevitably decrease. If we take into account such phenomena as child-free and increasing number of samesex marriages, we will see that finally it will lead to the extinction of the West-European civilization. Possible variants of future demographic development we may find in the concepts of demographic transition. But some consequences of that ways make us suggest that they are not preferred. That circumstance and the modern demographic situation bring us to propose a new scenario of demographic development. We called it “the fourth demographic transition”. The main idea of the proposed concept is that migration can be positive phenomenon for the future demographic development, which takes into account national and global interests through promotion marriages between native people and migrants. Here we would like to emphasize that we're not just talking about marriages between people of different nationalities, but namely about marriages between immigrants and the native population. The main criteria are that citizenship should be different. During the development of this scenario in real life, the most important will be the question of the formation of a new population, by which we mean the population, formed and developed on the basis of demographic processes such as international migration and nuptiality. This new population should have high reproductive attitudes and relevant qualitative characteristics that meet all the requirements of the development in the XXI century.

Статья посвящена формализации концепции четвертого демографического перехода альтернативного сценария демографического развития развитых стран мира (включая Россию), в основе которого лежат такие демографические процессы, как международная миграция населения и брачность.