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Экономический рост: от неоклассики к институциональным трактовкам

Экономический рост: от неоклассики к институциональным трактовкам

Abstract

The paper generalizes the common flaws of neoclassical growth models based on the basic model of R. Solow and its development within the framework of the Lucas-Romer type models, with the designation 20 Экономический рост: от неоклассики … of the relevant institutional factors. The concept of economic growth is presented in terms of D. North's theory of economic change, different types of investments, regarded as the main factor of modern economic growth, are described. However, analysis of Russian conditions for economic growth leads us to the conclusion that the component of total consumer spending was the most significant during the period of growth in 2000-2014, except for the crisis years of 2009 and 2015-2016, which requires changes in economic policies implemented under the crisis conditions. In Russia in the first phase of growth, it is necessary to stimulate consumption with further enhancement of investment belonging to the types that are analyzed in this article. The analysis of sensitivity of the economic growth rate to the measures of economic policy in Russia was conducted, which allowed us to establish the possibility for both monetization of the economy and reduction of interest rates, those being general conditions affecting the growth of non-primary factors. The task of restraining inflation in Russia is not a determining condition for growth, as the current economic structure will trigger an upward trend in prices at the start of growth. If you follow the "monetary rule", it should reflect the need of the economic structure for money at the given rate of economic growth. Institutional and structural explanation for the growth conditions, in contrast to the neoclassical models, would be a more adequate means to describe the problems of growth in Russia.

Выделены основные недостатки неоклассических моделей роста, на основе базовой модели Р. Солоу и её развития в рамках моделей типа Ромера Лукаса, с обозначением релевантных институциональных факторов. Излагается взгляд на экономический рост с позиции теории экономических изменений Д. Норта, проводится типизация инвестиций как основного фактора современного экономического роста. Вместе с тем анализ российских условий экономического роста позволяет сделать вывод о том, что компонента совокупных потребительских расходов была наиболее значимой в период роста 2000-2014 гг., за исключением кризисных лет 2009 и 2015-2016 гг., что требует изменения мер экономической политики, реализуемых в условиях возникновения кризисных условий. На первой фазе российского роста потребуется стимулировать именно потребление с дальнейшей активизацией инвестиций по тем типам, которые анализируются в настоящей статье. Проведен анализ чувствительности темпа экономического роста к мерам экономической политики в России, позволивший установить возможность как монетизации экономики, так и снижения процентных ставок общих условий, воздействующих на рост на несырьевых факторах. Задача погашения инфляции в России не является определяющим условием роста, так как сложившаяся экономическая структура будет провоцировать повышательную динамику цен при запуске роста. Если следовать «монетарному правилу», то оно должно отражать потребность экономической структуры в деньгах при данном темпе экономического роста. Институциональное и структурное объяснение условий роста, в отличие от неоклассических моделей, будет более адекватным средством описания проблем роста в России.

Keywords

ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ РОСТ,МОДЕЛИ,ИНСТИТУТЫ,НЕОКЛАССИКА,ИНСТИТУЦИОНАЛИЗМ,КОМБИНАТОРНЫЙ ЭФФЕКТ,"СОЗИДАТЕЛЬНОЕ РАЗРУШЕНИЕ",НЕОШУМПЕТЕРИАНСКАЯ ТЕОРИЯ,ECONOMIC GROWTH,MODELS,INSTITUTIONS,NEOCLASSICAL ECONOMICS,INSTITUTIONALISM,COMBINATORIAL EFFECT,"CREATIVE DESTRUCTION",NEO-SCHUMPETERIAN THEORY

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
gold