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Использование показателей описательной статистики для характеристики эмпирических выборок макроэкономических индикаторов

Использование показателей описательной статистики для характеристики эмпирических выборок макроэкономических индикаторов

Abstract

In the article, the statistical tests of the empirical distributions of economic indicators of the Russian Federation in 2011 (average monthly nominal accrued salary, the unemployment rate), the unemployment rate of the countries of the European Union in 2011, on conformity to their normal distribution law (distribution fitting) are made. On the basis of the calculation of the statistical criterion of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov, (K-S test) the distributions being not normal distributions is proved. Therefore, for their characteristics it is inappropriate to use the arithmetic mean as indicators of economic status and development. For the selected empirical distributions of the calculations of such indicators descriptive statistics, as the median, the lower and upper quartiles, interquartile range are conducted, the advantages of graphical representation of the data in the form of a chart «box and whisker» are shown. On the example of the two Russian districts of the Southern Federal district and the Volga Federal district, the comparison of the average monthly salary in 2010 with the help of nonparametric test Mann-Whitney U test is carried out, the difference in the interpretation of data compared with the use of simple averages is shown. The results of the performed calculations can be used for the analysis of economic indicators average monthly salary and the unemployment rate in 83 subjects of the Russian Federation in 2011, the unemployment rate in the EU countries in 2011, as well as the methodology of statistical analysis of the different empirical distribution economic indicators.

В статье выполнена статистическая проверка эмпирических распределений макроэкономических индикаторов РФ (среднемесячная номинальная начисленная зарплата, уровень безработицы) в 2011 г. и уровня безработицы стран Евросоюза в 2011 г. на соответствие их нормальному закону распределения. На основе расчета статистического критерия Колмогорова Смирнова доказано, что указанные распределения не являются нормальными распределениями. Поэтому для их характеристики неправомерно использовать средние арифметические значения в качестве макроэкономических индикаторов состояния и развития. Для выбранных эмпирических распределений выполнены расчеты таких показателей описательной статистики, как медиана, нижний и верхний квартили, интерквартильный размах, выбросы и экстремальные значения, показаны преимущества графического представления данных в виде диаграммы «ящик с усами». На примере данных двух российских округов Южного ФО и Приволжского ФО проведено сравнение среднемесячных зарплат с помощью непараметрического критерия Манна Уитни, показано различие в интерпретации данных по сравнению с использованием средних арифметических значений. Результаты выполненных расчетов могут быть использованы для анализа макроэкономических индикаторов среднемесячной зарплаты и уровня безработицы в 83 субъектах РФ в 2011 г., уровня безработицы в странах Евросоюза в 2011 г., а также в качестве методологии статистического анализа различных эмпирических выборок.

Keywords

МАКРОЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ИНДИКАТОРЫ, СРЕДНЕМЕСЯЧНАЯ ЗАРПЛАТА, УРОВЕНЬ БЕЗРАБОТИЦЫ, НОРМАЛЬНОЕ РАСПРЕДЕЛЕНИЕ, МЕДИАНА, ИНТЕРКВАРТИЛЬНЫЙ РАЗМАХ, КВАРТИЛЬ, ДИАГРАММА «ЯЩИК С УСАМИ», КРИТЕРИЙ КОЛМОГОРОВА СМИРНОВА, КРИТЕРИЙ МАННА УИТНИ, CHART «BOX-AND-WHISKER PLOT»

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
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