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Комплексная методика оценки кредитного качества эмитентов облигаций

Комплексная методика оценки кредитного качества эмитентов облигаций

Abstract

Формирование инвестиционных портфелей на рынке облигаций предполагает наличие корректной и адекватной оценки кредитного качества эмитентов облигаций. Большинство существующих на современном этапе методик оценки кредитного качества эмитентов облигаций являются чрезмерно формализованными, и их использование зачастую приводит к недооценке рисков, присущих облигационным выпускам, потенциально пригодным для включения в инвестиционные портфели. По этой причине на текущий момент существует объективная необходимость в разработке комплексной методики оценки кредитного качества эмитентов облигаций, которая позволила бы устранить недостатки в существующих методиках и не приводила бы к формированию чрезмерно консервативных портфелей. Предложена авторская методика, основанная на объединении традиционного количественного подхода к оценке кредитного качества эмитентов облигаций с экспертными оценками и позволяющая значительно повысить степень адаптивности данной методики к формированию инвестиционного портфеля на рынке облигаций посредством реализации следующих этапов: 1) экспертная оценка финансовой отчетности эмитента облигаций; 2) выбор и расчет количественных показателей на основании данных финансовой отчетности эмитента облигаций, их сопоставление с критическими значениями; 3) экспертная оценка готовности эмитента выполнять принятые на себя обязательства по облигационным выпускам; 4) формирование перечня облигационных выпусков, которые могут быть включены в состав инвестиционного портфеля коммерческого банка (в целом и по отдельным эмитентам облигаций).

The paper argues that building an investment portfolio in the bond market requires a correct and adequate assessment of the credit quality of bond issuers. At the present stage, most existing assessment methodologies of the credit quality of bond issuers are overly formalized and often lead to misestimating of the risks inherent in bond issues that are potentially suitable for inclusion in investment portfolios. That is why at the moment there is an urgent necessity to develop a comprehensive methodology for assessing the credit quality of the issuers of bonds which would address the shortcomings of the existing practices and would not lead to building overly conservative portfolios. The author presents an original methodology based on combining traditional quantitative approach to the assessment of the credit quality of bond issuers with expert assessment and allowing to significantly increase the adaptability of the methodology to building of an investment portfolio in the bond market through the following stages: 1) expert assessment of the financial statements of the issuer of bonds; 2) selection and calculation of quantitative indicators from the financial statements of the issuer of bonds, their comparison with the critical values; 3) expert assessment of the commitment of the issuer to fulfill obligations under the bond issues; 4) forming a list of bond issues which may be included in the investment portfolio of a commercial bank (in general and for individual bond issuers).

Keywords

ИНВЕСТИЦИОННЫЙ ПОРТФЕЛЬ, РЫНОК ОБЛИГАЦИЙ, ЭКСПЕРТНЫЕ ОЦЕНКИ, КАЧЕСТВЕННЫЕ И КОЛИЧЕСТВЕННЫЕ ПОКАЗАТЕЛИ, ФИНАНСОВАЯ ОТЧЕТНОСТЬ ЭМИТЕНТА

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average