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Численный прогноз опасных явлений погоды по северу Приморского края

Численный прогноз опасных явлений погоды по северу Приморского края

Abstract

Application of numerical mesoscale model WRF-ARW for forecasting of the dangerous phenomena for territories of the Primorye Territory is considered. As an example cases of very strong precipitations around the Ternej village in January and June, 2009 are chosen. The model has precisely enough reproduced the sums of precipitations which have been the reason for occurrence of the dangerous phenomena. All reproduced atmospheric processes (change of wind directions, frontal passage, heat advection) were observed actually with some deviations in time. Model use in operative practice wouldenable to make beforehand storm notifi cations about the possible dangerous phenomenon.

Рассматривается применение численной мезомасштабной модели WRF-ARW для прогнозирования опасных явлений на территории Приморского края. В качестве примера выбраны случаи очень сильных осадков в районе пос. Терней в январе и июне 2009 г. Модель довольно точно воспроизвела суммы выпавших осадков, которые и послужили причиной возникновения опасных явлений. Все воспроизведенные атмосферные процессы (смена направлений ветра, прохождение фронтов, адвекция тепла) наблюдались в действительности с некоторыми отклонениями по времени. Использование модели в оперативной практике позволило бы заблаговременно выпустить штормовые оповещения о возможном опасном явлении.

Keywords

МОДЕЛЬ WRF-ARW, ОПАСНЫЕ ЯВЛЕНИЯ ПОГОДЫ, ЧИСЛЕННЫЙ ПРОГНОЗ ПОГОДЫ

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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