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Развитие механизма инвестиционного анализа в условиях неопределённости

Развитие механизма инвестиционного анализа в условиях неопределённости

Abstract

The article runs about the necessity of improvement method of account efficiency of the investment project in condition unstable economic development. In article offered a method of reducing investment risk in the account of the investment project of real option method in condition indeterminacy. For this purpose developed the formula for determining the discount rate of each scenario of events. In addition, authors develop the concept of construction of stages for the purpose of definition of scenarios of the investment project and their probability with a view of overcoming of the basic problems of use of multiscenary model for estimation of cost of real options. For the purpose of decrease in risks of the operating enterprise both classification of real options is developed for a conclusion of the enterprise from crisis, and as a preventive measure, with instructions of sources of financial real options method

В статье обосновывается необходимость совершенствования методов оценки эффективности инвестиционных проектов в условиях неопределенности экономического развития. Авторами предложен способ снижения инвестиционного риска при оценке инвестиционных проектов методом реальных опционов в условиях неопределенности. Для этого разработана формула определения ставки дисконтирования для каждого сценария развития событий. Кроме того, авторами разработана концепция построения этапов для определения сценариев реализации инвестиционного проекта и их вероятности в целях преодоления основных проблем использования мультисценарного подхода для оценки стоимости реальных опционов. Разработана классификация реальных опционов в целях снижения рисков действующего предприятия как для его вывода из кризиса, так и в качестве превентивной меры, с указанием источников финансовых ресурсов.

Keywords

МЕТОД РЕАЛЬНЫХ ОПЦИОНОВ, ОЦЕНКА ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТИ ИНВЕСТИЦИОННЫХ ПРОЕКТОВ, СНИЖЕНИЕ РИСКОВ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЯ, СТАВКА ДИСКОНТИРОВАНИЯ, СЦЕНАРИИ РЕАЛИЗАЦИИ ИНВЕСТИЦИОННОГО ПРОЕКТА, УЧЕТ ИНВЕСТИЦИОННЫХ РИСКОВ

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
bronze