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Сплайн-прогнозирование поведения регионального предпринимателя в реалиях Российской экономики

Сплайн-прогнозирование поведения регионального предпринимателя в реалиях Российской экономики

Abstract

Предложен новый способ прогнозирования регионального маркетинга на основе сплайн-аппроксимационных построений. В полной мере учитываются ускорение, усложнение, стохастичность, фрактальность мировой экономики, «опущенной» на регион. Структура временных рядов объёмов про-даж и доходности разделена на «грубую» и «тонкую» составляющие. Цикличность «тонкой» структуры позволяет предпринимателю оптимально планировать поставки, построить траекторию своего поведе-ния. К пяти известным разновидностям сплайн-прогнозов добавляется ещё один, в котором используется свойство улучшения качества глобального прогноза за счёт «оптимального статистического обобщения» четырёх локальных прогнозов. Полученные «тонкими» методами прогнозы показывают существенные отличия от «грубых» моделей на протяжении 4-х месячного горизонта прогноза – от декабря 2012 до марта 2013 г.

A new method for predicting regional marketing based on spline approximation constructions. Fully take into account the acceleration mustache complications, stochastic, fractal world economy, "lowered" at regional-one. The structure of the time series of sales and profitability is divided into the "coarse" and "fine" components. Cyclical "thin" structure allows busi-Tieliu optimally plan the delivery, to build the trajectory of his behavior. The five known species of spline projections add another, which property is used to improve the quality of global forecast by "an optimal statistical generalization" of four local forecasts. Received the "thin-mi" methods pro-jections show significant differences from the "rough" models for 4-month forecast horizon – from December 2012 to March 2013.

Keywords

ОПТИМАЛЬНОЕ СТАТИСТИЧЕСКОЕ ОБОБЩЕНИЕ, ФАЗОВЫЕ ПОРТРЕТЫ, ФАЗОВОЕ ПРОСТРАНСТВО, СПЛАЙН-ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ, СПЛАЙН-АППРОКСИМАЦИЯ, РЕГИОНАЛЬНАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
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