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Discrimination ability of the Energy score

Authors: Pinson, Pierre; id_orcid 0000-0002-1480-0282; Tastu, Julija;

Discrimination ability of the Energy score

Abstract

Research on generating and verification of multivariate probabilistic forecasts has gained increased interest over the last few years. Emphasis is placed here on the evaluation of forecast quality with the Energy score, which is based on a quadratic scoring rule. While this score may be seen as appealing since being proper, we show that its discrimination ability may be limited when focusing on the dependence structure of multivariate probabilistic forecasts. For the case of multivariate Gaussian process, a theoretical upper for such discrimination ability is derived and discussed. This limited discrimination ability may eventually get compromised by computational and sampling issues, as dimension increases.

Country
Denmark
Related Organizations
Keywords

Probabilistic forecasting, Energy score, Discrimination, Proper score, Multivariate scenarios

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green