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The Impact of Value Creation (Tobin’s Q), Total Shareholder Return (TSR), and Survival (Altman’s Z) on Credit Ratings

Authors: Oliveira, Nazário Augusto de; Basso, Leonardo Fernando Cruz;

The Impact of Value Creation (Tobin’s Q), Total Shareholder Return (TSR), and Survival (Altman’s Z) on Credit Ratings

Abstract

This research explores the impact of financial indicators on the credit ratings of companies listed on the S&P 500, employing a Sys-GMM model to address endogeneity concerns. Three independent variables categorized as market and survival factors alongside seven control variables sourced from leverage, liquidity, interest coverage, profitability, market, survival, and macroeconomic domains were investigated. The sample consisted of 2398 observations from Capital IQ Pro, spanning nine years (2013 to 2021) and encompassing 240 public companies. The findings suggest that neither Tobin’s Q (TQ) nor Total Shareholder Return (TSR) lack significant correlations with credit ratings, implying that stock market performance and total shareholder return do not directly impact credit ratings. In contrast, the Altman Z-score (AZS) emerged as a significant predictor, indicating its importance in assessing credit risk. These insights enhance the understanding of financial indicators’ impacts on credit ratings, aiding financial institutions and companies in prudent lending and financing decisions.

Keywords

credit risk, determinants, credit rating, risk management

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
gold