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Towards a validated definition of the clinical transition to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: A study from the Italian MS Register

Authors: Pietro Iaffaldano; Giuseppe Lucisano; Tommaso Guerra; Francesco Patti; Marco Onofrj; Vincenzo Brescia Morra; Mauro Zaffaroni; +29 Authors

Towards a validated definition of the clinical transition to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: A study from the Italian MS Register

Abstract

Background: Definitions for reliable identification of transition from relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) to secondary progressive (SP)MS in clinical cohorts are not available. Objectives: To compare diagnostic performances of two different data-driven SPMS definitions. Methods: Data-driven SPMS definitions based on a version of Lorscheider’s algorithm (DDA) and on the EXPAND trial inclusion criteria were compared, using the neurologist’s definition (ND) as gold standard, in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), Akaike information criterion (AIC) and area under the curve (AUC). Results: A cohort of 10,240 MS patients with ⩾5 years of follow-up was extracted from the Italian MS Registry; 880 (8.5%) patients were classified as SPMS according to the neurologist definition, 1806 (17.6%) applying the DDA and 1134 (11.0%) with the EXPAND definition. The DDA showed greater discrimination power (AUC: 0.8 vs 0.6) and a higher sensitivity (77.1% vs 38.0%) than the EXPAND definition, with similar specificity (88.0% vs 91.5%). PPV and NPV were higher using the DDA than considering EXPAND definition (37.5% vs 29.5%; 97.6% vs 94.0%). Conclusion: Data-driven definitions demonstrated greater ability to capture SP transition than neurologist’s definition and the global accuracy of DDA seems to be higher than the EXPAND definition.

Country
Italy
Keywords

Multiple Sclerosis, 610, Multiple Sclerosis, Chronic Progressive, Multiple sclerosis, Multiple Sclerosis, Relapsing-Remitting, big data, Area Under Curve, big data; data-driven algorithm; disease registry; Multiple sclerosis; prognosis; secondary progressive, data-driven algorithm, disease registry, secondary progressive, Humans, Multiple sclerosi, prognosis, Multiple sclerosis; big data; data-driven algorithm; disease registry; prognosis; secondary progressive, prognosi

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
9
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
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