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IEEE Access
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
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Predicting Hospital No-Shows: Interpretable Machine Learning Models Approach

Authors: Khaled M. Toffaha; Mecit Can Emre Simsekler; Aamna Alshehhi; Mohammed Atif Omar;

Predicting Hospital No-Shows: Interpretable Machine Learning Models Approach

Abstract

Healthcare systems face significant challenges and financial burdens due to patient no-shows, highlighting the need for accurate and interpretable predictive models. This study evaluated the efficacy of twelve classification algorithms that can generate self-explanatory results illustrations across four categories: Rule Set classifiers, Rule List classifiers, Rule Tree classifiers, and Algebraic Models, using a real-world dataset, “Brazilian Medical Appointment No Shows”. Analysis across multiple performance metrics revealed significant differences among the algorithms. Advanced models like Tree- Generalized Additive Model (GAM), Fast Interpretable Greedy-Tree Sums (FIGS), Tree Alternating Optimization (TAO) Tree, and RuleFit demonstrated superior predictive capabilities using Over-Sampling and feature selection, achieving an accuracy of 87.53%, AUC 0.87, and F1-score of 0.86, compared to basic tree algorithms like Greedy Tree and C4.5. While Tree-GAM showed high accuracy, it had a significantly longer runtime of approximately 101 seconds. FIGS and TAO Tree offered compelling alternatives with comparable accuracy but significantly reduced computational demands, with runtimes under 1 second. These findings highlight the trade-offs between predictive power, computational efficiency, and practical implementation in healthcare settings. The study also revealed the value of flexible, adaptive architectures in capturing nuanced factors influencing patient no-shows. Overall, these advanced algorithms present accurate and interpretable solutions for forecasting patient no-shows, with FIGS and TAO Tree emerging as particularly effective choices that offer a good balance between predictive insight and practical viability. These insights aim to guide health systems in optimizing patient access and reliability while addressing the complex issue of no-shows, underscoring the importance of considering multiple performance metrics when selecting algorithms for real-world applications.

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Keywords

greedy tree classifiers, decision tree algorithms, hierarchical shrinkage trees, additive model trees, healthcare analytics, Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering, Patient no-shows, TK1-9971

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
gold