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Incorporating genetic data improves target trial emulations and informs the use of polygenic scores in randomized controlled trial design

Authors: Jakob German; Zhiyu Yang; Sarah Urbut; Pekka Vartiainen; Andrea Gana; Pradeep Natarajan; Elisabetta Patorno; +3 Authors

Incorporating genetic data improves target trial emulations and informs the use of polygenic scores in randomized controlled trial design

Abstract

Abstract Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) remain the gold standard for evaluating medical interventions, yet ethical, practical and financial constraints often necessitate reliance on observational data and trial emulations. This study explores how integrating genetic data can enhance both emulated and traditional trial designs. Using FinnGen (n = 425,483), we emulated four major cardiometabolic RCTs and showed how reduced differences in polygenic scores (PGS) between trial arms track improvement in study design. Simulation studies reveal that PGS alone cannot fully adjust for unmeasured confounding. Instead, Mendelian randomization analyses can be used to detect likely confounders. Finally, trial emulations provide a platform to assess and refine PGS implementation for genetic enrichment strategies. By comparing associations of PGS with trial outcomes in the general population and emulated trial cohorts, we highlight the need to validate prognostic enrichment approaches in trial-relevant populations. These results highlight the growing potential of incorporating genetic information to optimize clinical trial design.

Country
Finland
Keywords

Cardiovascular outcomes, Biomedicine, Propensity score, Genetics, developmental biology, physiology, Humans; Multifactorial Inheritance/genetics; Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic/methods; Mendelian Randomization Analysis/methods; Research Design; Computer Simulation, Empagliflozin, Warfarin, Mortality, Article, Causal inference

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
Green
hybrid