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Ecology and Evolution
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Ecology and Evolution
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Modeling Trophic Dynamics in Lake Võrtsjärv: Energy Flow and Species Interactions

Authors: Maria Tirronen; Anna Kuparinen;

Modeling Trophic Dynamics in Lake Võrtsjärv: Energy Flow and Species Interactions

Abstract

ABSTRACTUnderstanding ecosystem dynamics is essential for ecological research and resource management. Bioenergetic or allometric trophic network models are effective in elucidating these interactions. However, aligning them accurately with empirical data remains challenging. Our present study contributes to such efforts by developing a trophic network model to describe population dynamics at Lake Võrtsjärv, Estonia, with a focus on predator–prey relationships and energy considerations. We calibrate this model to empirical biomass time series data using numerical optimization methods, a process previously applied to bionergetic models with considerably fewer guilds and/or parameters. Our approach emphasizes aligning the model closely with empirical time series and yields 77%–81% similarity between the modeled average dynamics and recorded biomasses. Despite relatively high similarity, the models we tested for noise—those assuming observation noise, as well as those incorporating environmental noise through stochastic differential equations—could not describe the annual variation of biomasses realistically. Overall, our tentative results demonstrate both the potential and the challenges involved in calibrating bioenergetic models to empirical data from large food webs.

Keywords

model calibration, food web, Ecology, allometric trophic network model, bioenergetic model, environmental noise, lake ecosystem, QH540-549.5, Research Article

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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gold