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Public Opinion Quarterly
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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https://dx.doi.org/10.5167/uzh...
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The Effects of Forecasts on the Accuracy and Precision of Expectations

Authors: Barnfield, Matthew; Phillips, Joseph; Stoeckel, Florian; Lyons, Benjamin; Szewach, Paula; Thompson, Jack; Mérola, Vittorio; +2 Authors

The Effects of Forecasts on the Accuracy and Precision of Expectations

Abstract

Abstract Quantitative forecasts have become increasingly prominent as tools for aiding public understanding of sociopolitical trends. But how much, and what, do people learn from quantitative forecasts? In this note, we show through a preregistered survey experiment that real forecasts of the 2022 French presidential election significantly affect expectations of the election result. The direction of that effect hinges on how the forecast is presented. Voters become more accurate and precise in their predictions of each candidate’s vote share when given forecast information in the form of projected vote share. Forecasts presented as numerical probabilities make such expectations less accurate and less precise. When combined, the effects of both forms on vote share expectations tend to cancel out, but jointly boost voters’ ability to identify likely winners. Our findings have implications for the public communication of quantitative information.

Keywords

10004 Department of Business Administration, 1207 History and Philosophy of Science, Research Note, 3312 Sociology and Political Science, UFSP13-1 Social Networks, 3315 Communication, 3300 General Social Sciences, 330 Economics, 1202 History

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
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