Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Infectious Disease M...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
Infectious Disease Modelling
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC ND
Data sources: Crossref
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
PubMed Central
Other literature type . 2025
License: CC BY NC ND
Data sources: PubMed Central
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
Infectious Disease Modelling
Article . 2025
Data sources: DOAJ
versions View all 3 versions
addClaim

This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.

You have already added 0 works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.

Evaluating the impact of the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem on ecological model inference: A case study of COVID-19 data in Queensland, Australia

Authors: Shovanur Haque; Aiden Price; Kerrie Mengersen; Wenbiao Hu;

Evaluating the impact of the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem on ecological model inference: A case study of COVID-19 data in Queensland, Australia

Abstract

Accurate identification of spatial patterns and risk factors of disease occurrence is crucial for public health interventions. However, the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) poses challenges in disease modelling by impacting the reliability of statistical inferences drawn from spatially aggregated data. This study examines the effect of MAUP on ecological model inference using locally and overseas-acquired COVID-19 case data from 2020 to 2023 in Queensland, Australia. Bayesian spatial Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) models were applied across four Statistical Area (SA) levels, as defined by the Australian Statistical Geography Standard, with and without covariates: Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) and overseas-acquired (OA) COVID-19 cases. OA COVID-19 cases were also considered a response variable in our study. Results indicated that finer spatial scales (SA1 and SA2) captured localized patterns and significant spatial autocorrelation, while coarser levels (SA3 and SA4) smoothed spatial variability, masking potential outbreak clusters. Incorporating SEIFA as a covariate in locally-acquired (LA) cases reduced spatial autocorrelation in residuals, effectively capturing socioeconomic disparities. Conversely, OA cases showed limited effectiveness in reducing autocorrelation at finer scales. For LA cases, higher socioeconomic disadvantage was associated with increased COVID-19 incidence at finer scales, but this association became non-significant at coarser scales. OA cases showed significant positive association with higher SEIFA scores at finer scales. Model parameters displayed narrower credible intervals at finer scales, indicating greater precision, while coarser levels had increased uncertainty. SA2 emerged as an arguably optimal scale, striking a balance between spatial resolution, model stability, and interpretability. To improve inference on COVID-19 incidence, it is recommended to use data from both SA1 and SA2 levels to leverage their respective strengths. The findings emphasize the importance of selecting appropriate spatial scales and covariates or evaluating the inferential impacts of multiple scales, to address MAUP to facilitate more reliable spatial analysis. The study advocates exploring intermediate aggregation levels and multi-scale approaches to better capture nuanced disease dynamics and extend these analyses across Australia and replicating in other countries with low population densities to enhance generalizability.

Keywords

Spatial patterns, Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP), COVID-19, Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216, Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA), Model inference, Bayesian models, Article

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    1
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
Green
gold
Related to Research communities