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Mortality forecasting via multi-task neural networks

Authors: De Mori, L.; Haberman, S.; Millossovich, P.; Zhu, R.;

Mortality forecasting via multi-task neural networks

Abstract

AbstractIn recent decades, analysing the progression of mortality rates has become very important for both public and private pension schemes, as well as for the life insurance branch of insurance companies. Traditionally, the tools used in this field were based on stochastic and deterministic approaches that allow extrapolating mortality rates beyond the last year of observation. More recently, new techniques based on machine learning have been introduced as alternatives to traditional models, giving practitioners new opportunities. Among these, neural networks (NNs) play an important role due to their computation power and flexibility to treat the data without any probabilistic assumption. In this paper, we apply multi-task NNs, whose approach is based on leveraging useful information contained in multiple related tasks to help improve the generalized performance of all the tasks, to forecast mortality rates. Finally, we compare the performance of multi-task NNs to that of existing single-task NNs and traditional stochastic models on mortality data from 17 different countries.

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Keywords

mortality rates, Actuarial mathematics, multi-task neural network, life expectancy, mortality forecasting, Mortality forecasting; life expectancy; multi-task neural networks; standard deviation; mortality rates, Mortality forecasting, standard deviation, multi-task neural networks, Mathematical geography and demography, Artificial neural networks and deep learning

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Top 10%
Average
Average
hybrid