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Business Strategy and the Environment
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
EconStor
Article . 2025
License: CC BY
Data sources: EconStor
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The Stock Market's Anticipation of the Trump 2024 Election: The Case of Sustainable Business Models

Authors: Dennis Koch; Dirk Schiereck;

The Stock Market's Anticipation of the Trump 2024 Election: The Case of Sustainable Business Models

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis study examines the impact of green revenues on US stock price reactions around Donald Trump's 2024 election win. Firms' green revenue share (GRS) is significantly associated with negative cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) post‐election, exhibiting a nonlinear effect that intensifies at higher GRS levels. However, stock markets showed no anticipating revaluation of green business models during the weeks before the election. Instead, investors reacted sharply to two unanticipated key pre‐election events, the Trump assassination attempt and Harris' candidacy announcement, highlighting sensitivity to anticipated shifts in green policy. Remarkably, the revaluation of green business models did not take place uniformly across the entire country. The state political environment moderates this effect, as green firms in Democratic states experienced more negative CARs than those in Republican states.

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Keywords

Trump, green revenues, stock price reactions, ESG, ddc:650, sustainability, event study, US election

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
hybrid