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JURNAL MASYARAKAT INFORMATIKA
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY SA
Data sources: Crossref
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JURNAL MASYARAKAT INFORMATIKA
Article . 2025
Data sources: DOAJ
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A Comparative Study of Machine Learning Models for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Authors: Etna Vianita; Henri Tantyoko;

A Comparative Study of Machine Learning Models for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Abstract

Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) was a critical task in power system operations, enabling efficient energy management and planning. This study presented a comparative analysis of five machine learning models namely XGBoost, Random Forest, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and LightGBM using real-world electricity demand data collected over a four-month period. Two modeling approaches were explored: one using only time-based features (hour, day of the week, month), and another incorporating historical lag features (lag_1, lag_2, lag_3) to capture temporal patterns. The results showed that MLP with lag features achieved the best performance (RMSE: 57.63, MAE: 34.54, MAPE: 0.22), highlighting its ability to model nonlinear and sequential dependencies. In contrast, SVR and LightGBM experienced performance degradation when lag features were added, suggesting sensitivity to feature dimensionality and data volume. These findings emphasized the importance of model-feature alignment and temporal context in improving forecasting accuracy. Future work could explore the integration of external variables such as weather and holidays, as well as the application of advanced deep learning architectures like LSTM or hybrid models to further enhance robustness and generalizability.

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Keywords

Information technology, T58.5-58.64, short-term load forecasting, machine learning models, lag features, electricity demand prediction, model evaluation

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
gold