Hornets pose significant risks to pollinator-dependent crop production, threatening food security and ecosystem health. This study provides a spatial evaluation of current and future exposure of pollinator-dependent crops to hornet predation, focusing on the potential impacts of their predatory behaviour on insect pollinator populations. More than half of current hornet observations globally are concentrated in areas with high pollination dependent crop production of southern Asia, central Europe, and North America, where they can cause the greatest harm. Up to 6 % of global pollinator-dependent croplands are projected to become hornet hotspots by 2070. Crops under highest exposure to hornets include soybeans in North America, apples in Europe and watermelon in Asia. Hornet expansion, facilitated by global shipping and climate change, increases pressure on insect pollinator populations, negatively affecting crop yields and quality. We emphasize the need for effective management strategies, including early detection and control measures, to mitigate these risks. This research provides critical spatial insights to inform policy decisions aimed at safeguarding pollination services essential for sustainable agriculture.

We would like to express our gratitude to Miguel Sevilla-Callejo and Marcia Barbossa for their invaluable assistance during the geocoding process of the occurrences and modelling, respectively. This work has been possible thanks to a FPI Grant from the Conselleria d'Innovació, Recerca i Turisme del Govern de les Illes Balears (FPI_014_2020), and the COLOSS Panuwan Chantawannakul Award 2023. This work has been partially sponsored by the Comunitat Autonoma de les Illes Balears through the Direcció General de Política Universitaria i Recerca with funds from the Tourist Stay Tax Law ITS 2017-006 (PRD2020/25) and grant PID2023-149487OA-I00 funded by MICIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by ERDF/EU.

[Data availability] Datasets and R scripts are available at: https://figshare.com/s/ba999fd5e5a52fd3bde6

Peer reviewed