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Mapping the global distribution of lead and its isotopes in seawater with explainable machine learning

Authors: A. Olivelli; A. Olivelli; A. Olivelli; R. Arcucci; M. Rehkämper; T. van de Flierdt;

Mapping the global distribution of lead and its isotopes in seawater with explainable machine learning

Abstract

Since the late 1800s, and especially in the last century, the natural biogeochemical cycle of lead (Pb) in the ocean has been severely perturbed by anthropogenic emissions generated by the use of leaded gasoline, waste incineration, coal combustion and non-ferrous metal smelting. Lead and its isotopes are powerful tools to study the pathways of Pb pollution from land to sea and, simultaneously, investigate biogeochemical processes in the ocean. For these reasons, the study of Pb concentrations and isotope compositions of seawater is a core part of the international marine geochemistry programme GEOTRACES. However, the scarcity and sparsity of in situ measurements of Pb concentrations and isotope compositions do not allow for a comprehensive understanding of Pb pollution pathways and marine biogeochemical cycling on a global scale.We present here three machine learning models developed to map seawater Pb concentrations and isotope compositions leveraging the global GEOTRACES dataset together with historical data. The models are based on the non-linear regression algorithm XGBoost and use climatologies of oceanographic and atmospheric variables as features from which to predict Pb concentrations, 206Pb/207Pb, and 208Pb/207Pb. Using Shapley Additive Values (SHAP), we found that seawater temperature, atmospheric dust and black carbon, and salinity are the most important features for mapping Pb concentrations. Dissolved oxygen concentration, salinity, temperature, and atmospheric dust are the most important features for mapping 206Pb/207Pb, while atmospheric black carbon and dust, seawater temperature, and surface chlorophyll-a for 208Pb/207Pb. The output of our models shows that (i) the highest levels of pollution are found in the surface Indian Ocean, (ii) pollution from previous decades is sinking in the North Atlantic and Pacific Ocean, and (iii) waters characterised by a highly anthropogenic Pb isotope fingerprint are spreading from the Southern Ocean throughout the Southern Hemisphere at intermediate depths. The analysis of the uncertainty associated with the mapped distribution of Pb concentrations, 206Pb/207Pb, and 208Pb/207Pb suggests that the Southern Ocean is the key area to prioritise in future sampling campaigns.

Keywords

Environmental sciences, QE1-996.5, GE1-350, Geology

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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