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IJTLD Open
Article . 2025
Data sources: DOAJ
IJTLD Open
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
Data sources: Crossref
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Conflation of prediction and causality in the TB literature

Authors: M.L. Romo; L. Barcellini; M.F. Franke; P.Y. Khan;

Conflation of prediction and causality in the TB literature

Abstract

<sec><title>BACKGROUND</title>Observational data can answer both predictive and etiologic research questions; however, the model-building approach and interpretation of results differ based on the research goal (i.e., prediction versus causal inference). Conflation occurs when aspects of the methodology and/or interpretation that are unique to prediction or etiology are combined or confused, potentially leading to biased results and erroneous conclusions.</sec><sec><title>METHODS</title>We conducted a rapid review using MEDLINE (2018–2023) of a subset of the observational TB literature: cohort studies among people with drug-resistant TB that considered HIV status an exposure of interest and reported on TB treatment outcomes. For each article, we assessed the research question, statistical approach, presentation of results, and discussion and interpretation of results.</sec><sec><title>RESULTS</title>Among the 40 articles included, 32 (80%) had evidence of conflation. The most common specific types of conflation were recommending or proposing interventions to modify exposures in a predictive study and having a causal interpretation of predictors, with both types frequently co-occurring.</sec><sec><title>CONCLUSION</title>Conflation between prediction and etiology was common, highlighting the importance of increasing awareness about it and its potential consequences. We propose simple steps on how TB and lung health researchers can avoid conflation, beginning with clearly defining the research question.</sec>

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Keywords

Diseases of the respiratory system, tuberculosis, RC705-779, drug-resistant, epidemiologic methods, data interpretation, risk factors, Original Article

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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gold