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Simulación del cambio de uso de suelo en el área periurbana Villarrica-Pucón, Chile, 1998-2065: escenarios con y sin futuros proyectos viales

Authors: Cristian Henríquez Ruiz; Mauricio Morales; Paulina Contreras; Camila Aguayo; Vicente Aprigliano; Jorge Qüense;

Simulación del cambio de uso de suelo en el área periurbana Villarrica-Pucón, Chile, 1998-2065: escenarios con y sin futuros proyectos viales

Abstract

La pandemia de Covid-19 intensificó la migración urbana hacia zonas turísticas, generando presiones de periurbanización no planificada. Este estudio analiza los cambios de uso de suelo en el área periurbana de Villarrica-Pucón (Chile) bajo dos escenarios al 2065: tendencial y con nuevos proyectos viales, utilizando el modelo Dyna-CLUE y datos satelitales (1998-2018). Los resultados muestran un crecimiento explosivo de parcelas de agrado (3.208 ha en 2018 a 12.000 ha en 2065), ocupando 8 veces la superficie urbana actual, pero con mínima influencia de las vías proyectadas en su localización. Esto revela que la proximidad a amenidades naturales (lago, volcán) predomina sobre la accesibilidad vial como factor de expansión. Se concluye que: (i) los instrumentos de planificación chilenos son insuficientes para regular la periurbanización turística, (ii) las infraestructuras de transporte no son el principal impulsor de cambios de uso de suelo en contextos lacustres, y (iii) se requieren modelos de gestión territorial que integren variables paisajísticas y riesgos naturales. El estudio aporta evidencia para reorientar políticas en áreas bajo presión turística-pospandemia.

Keywords

Geography (General), infraestructura vial, parcelas residenciales rurales, peri urbanización, simulación, G1-922, Dyna-CLUE, planificación

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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