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Improving the accuracy of neural network exchange rate forecasting using evolutionary modeling methods

Підвищення точності нейромережевого прогнозування валютного курсу за допомогою методів еволюційного моделювання
Authors: Serhii Fedin;

Improving the accuracy of neural network exchange rate forecasting using evolutionary modeling methods

Abstract

A set of models of feedforward neural networks is created to obtain operational forecasts of the time series of the hryvnia/dollar exchange rate. It is shown that using an evolutionary algorithm for the total search of basic characteristics and a genetic algorithm for searching the values of the matrix of neural network weight coefficients allows optimizing the configuration and selecting the best neural network models according to various criteria of their training and testing quality. Based on the verification of forecasting results, it is established that the use of neural network models selected by the evolutionary modelling method increases the accuracy of forecasting the hryvnia/dollar exchange rate compared to neural network models created without the use of a genetic algorithm. The accuracy of the forecasting results is confirmed by the method of inverse verification using data from different retrospective periods of the time series using the criterion of the average absolute percentage error of the forecast.

Keywords

accuracy, neural network, обмінний курс, прогнозування, forecasting, QA75.5-76.95, exchange rate, генетичний алгоритм, еволюційне моделювання, Electronic computers. Computer science, genetic algorithm, оптимізація, evolutionary modeling, neural net-work, time series, нейронна мережа, часові ряди, optimization, точність

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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gold