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Detecting Evolutionary Change-Points with Branch-Specific Substitution Models and Shrinkage Priors

Authors: Ji, Xiang; Redelings, Benjamin; Su, Shuo; Bao, Hongcun; Deng, Wu-Min; Hong, Samuel L.; Baele, Guy; +2 Authors

Detecting Evolutionary Change-Points with Branch-Specific Substitution Models and Shrinkage Priors

Abstract

Abstract Branch-specific substitution models are popular for detecting evolutionary change-points, such as shifts in selective pressure. However, applying such models typically requires prior knowledge of change-point locations on the phylogeny or faces scalability issues with large data sets. To address both limitations, we integrate branch-specific substitution models with shrinkage priors to automatically identify change-points without prior knowledge, while simultaneously estimating distinct substitution parameters for each branch. To enable tractable inference under this high-dimensional model, we develop an analytical gradient algorithm for the branch-specific substitution parameters where the computational time is linear in the number of parameters. We apply this gradient algorithm to infer selection pressure dynamics in the evolution of the BRCA1 gene in primates and mutational dynamics in viral sequences from the recent mpox epidemic. Our novel algorithm enhances inference efficiency, achieving up to a 90-fold speedup per iteration in maximum likelihood optimization when compared to central difference numerical gradient method and up to a 360-fold improvement in computational performance within a Bayesian framework using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampler compared to conventional univariate random walk sampler.

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Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, Populations and Evolution, linear-time gradient algorithm, FOS: Biological sciences, Bayesian inference, Computation, Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE), natural selection, branch-specific substitution model, maximum likelihood, Article, Computation (stat.CO)

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green
hybrid