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PREDICTING TRAVEL-TIME RELIABILITY IN ROAD NETWORKS: A FITRNET-BASED APPROACH – A CASE STUDY OF ENGLAND

Authors: Navid KHORSHIDI; Shahriar AFANDIZADEH ZARGARI; Hamid MIRZAHOSSEIN; Hanif HEIDARI; Travis WALLER;

PREDICTING TRAVEL-TIME RELIABILITY IN ROAD NETWORKS: A FITRNET-BASED APPROACH – A CASE STUDY OF ENGLAND

Abstract

This Travel Time Reliability (TTR) is a crucial aspect of transportation planning and management. It affects individual decisions, scheduling, and productivity, and has significant financial implications for passengers and goods. Traffic congestion is a major factor impacting TTR, which can be classified as recurring (predictable) or non-recurring (unanticipated). Researchers have developed various definitions and measures for TTR and Planning Time Index (PTI) is one of these indexes. Proper communication of TTR is essential, and numerical measures like PTI are commonly used to convey this information to travelers. Machine Learning (ML) models, particularly neural networks, have become increasingly popular for TTR estimation due to their ability to handle complex relationships and high-dimensional data. This study proposes using Fitrnet, a feedforward fully connected neural network, for predicting TTR at a network level. While Fitrnet has been used in other fields of engineering, its application in TTR estimation is novel. The study uses a dataset from the UK government covering the Strategic Road Network from April 2015 to March 2021. Results show that a Fitrnet model with 5 hidden layers can accurately predict PTI, with MAPE values below 10% in most cases, demonstrating the effectiveness of Fitrnet for TTR prediction in smaller datasets. The study contributes to the growing body of research on TTR modeling by proposing a new approach using Fitrnet and applying it to a previously unused dataset.

Keywords

Transportation engineering, TA1001-1280, travel time reliability (ttr), prediction accuracy, fitrnet machine learning algorithm, TA1-2040, Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General), england's strategic road network (srn)

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
gold