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Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health
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Cause-Specific Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020–2021) in 12 Countries of the C-MOR Consortium

Authors: Victoria Virginia Beeks; Souzana Achilleos; Annalisa Quattrocchi; Chryso Th. Pallari; Elena Critselis; Pascale Salameh; Mohammad Reza Rahmanian Haghighi; +25 Authors

Cause-Specific Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020–2021) in 12 Countries of the C-MOR Consortium

Abstract

Abstract Background This study investigated cause-specific mortality rates in 12 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. Methods We collected weekly cause-specific mortality data from respiratory disease, pneumonia, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer from national vital statistic databases. We calculated excess mortality for respiratory disease (excluding COVID-19 codes), pneumonia, and CVD in 2020 and 2021 by comparing observed weekly against expected mortality based on historical data (2015–2019), accounting for seasonal trends. We used multilevel regression models to investigate the association between country-level pandemic-related variables and cause-specific mortality. Results Significant reductions in cumulative mortality from respiratory disease and pneumonia were observed in 2020 and/or 2021, except for Georgia, Northern Ireland, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, which exhibited excess mortality for one or both causes. Australia, Austria, Cyprus, Georgia, and Northern Ireland experienced excess cumulative CVD mortality in 2020 and/or 2021. Australia, Austria, Brazil, Cyprus, Georgia, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Slovenia, experienced increased crude cumulative cancer mortality during 2020 and/or 2021 compared to previous years. Among pandemic-related variables, reported COVID-19 incidence was negatively associated with increased cancer mortality, excess respiratory, (2020) and pneumonia (2021) mortality, and positively associated with respiratory and CVD mortality (2021). Stringency of control measures were negatively associated with excess respiratory disease, CVD, and increased cancer mortality (2021). Conclusions This study provides evidence of substantial excess mortality from CVD, and notable reductions in respiratory disease and pneumonia in both years across most countries investigated. Our study also highlights the beneficial impact of stringent control measures in mitigating excess mortality from most causes in 2021.

Countries
United States, United Kingdom
Keywords

Male, 330, Respiratory Tract Diseases, 613, Respiratory tract infections, Global Health, Neoplasms, Cause of Death, Cause-specific mortality, Humans, Mortality, Pandemics, Cancer, SARS-CoV-2, Australia, COVID-19, Pneumonia, Public health measures, COVID-19 ; Public health measures ; Cancer ; Mortality/trends [MeSH] ; Neoplasms/mortality [MeSH] ; Global Health/statistics ; Neoplasms/epidemiology [MeSH] ; COVID-19/mortality [MeSH] ; Cause-specific mortality ; Male [MeSH] ; Respiratory tract infections ; Cardiovascular diseases ; Cardiovascular Diseases/mortality [MeSH] ; COVID-19/epidemiology [MeSH] ; SARS-CoV-2 [MeSH] ; Research Article ; Pneumonia/mortality [MeSH] ; Humans [MeSH] ; Australia/epidemiology [MeSH] ; Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology [MeSH] ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/mortality [MeSH] ; Pandemics [MeSH] ; Cause of Death/trends [MeSH] ; Respiratory Tract Diseases/epidemiology [MeSH], Cardiovascular diseases, Cardiovascular Diseases, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270, Research Article

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    popularity
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    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
7
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold