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Alimentary Pharmacology & Therapeutics
Article . 2001 . Peer-reviewed
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Article . 2010
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Acute cholangitis—predictive factors for emergency ERCP

Authors: Lai, CL; Yuen, MF; Ng, M; Lai, KC; Hui, CK; Lam, SK;

Acute cholangitis—predictive factors for emergency ERCP

Abstract

Background:Acute cholangitis varies in severity from a mild form to severe cases which require urgent biliary decompression.Aim:This study was undertaken in order to develop a prognostic scoring system that can be used to predict which patients are likely to require emergency endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatogram (ERCP) upon admission.Methods:This is a prospective study of 142 consecutive patients with acute cholangitis. Emergency ERCP was performed in patients who did not respond to medical therapy.Results:Thirty‐one patients (21.8%) required emergency ERCP. A maximum heart rate of more than 100/min, albumin of less than 30 g/L, bilirubin of more than 50 μmol/L and prothrombin time of more than 14 s on admission were associated with failure of medical treatment and the need for emergency ERCP (P=0.001, < 0.001, 0.006 and 0.004, respectively). By using these four factors in a scoring system, 50.7% of those with a score of one or more required emergency ERCP compared with 1.5% of those with none of the four risk factors (P < 0.001). This scoring system has a sensitivity of 96.8% and a specificity of 59.6%.Conclusions:As patients with severe acute cholangitis show a higher mortality, we recommend that emergency ERCP be performed in patients with one or more of the four prognostic factors.

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Keywords

Decompression, Male, Cholangitis, 610, Sensitivity and Specificity, Endoscopic Retrograde, Heart Rate, Predictive Value of Tests, Risk Factors, Surgical, Albumins, 80 and over, Humans, Prospective Studies, Albumins - analysis, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Cholangiopancreatography, Endoscopic Retrograde, Cholangitis - diagnosis - physiopathology - surgery, Bilirubin, Decompression, Surgical, Prognosis, Cholangiopancreatography, Treatment Outcome, Acute Disease, Prothrombin Time, Female, Bilirubin - blood, Emergencies

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
53
Top 10%
Top 10%
Average
bronze