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Conditional Poisson Regression with Random Effects for the Analysis of Multi-site Time Series Studies

Authors: Barrera Gómez, Jose Antonio; Puig Oriol, Xavier; Ginebra Molins, Josep; Basagaña Flores, Xavier;

Conditional Poisson Regression with Random Effects for the Analysis of Multi-site Time Series Studies

Abstract

The analysis of time series studies linking daily counts of a health indicator with environmental variables (e.g., mortality or hospital admissions with air pollution concentrations or temperature; or motor vehicle crashes with temperature) is usually conducted with Poisson regression models controlling for long-term and seasonal trends using temporal strata. When the study includes multiple zones, analysts usually apply a two-stage approach: first, each zone is analyzed separately, and the resulting zone-specific estimates are then combined using meta-analysis. This approach allows zone-specific control for trends. A one-stage approach uses spatio-temporal strata and could be seen as a particular case of the case–time series framework recently proposed. However, the number of strata can escalate very rapidly in a long time series with many zones. A computationally efficient alternative is to fit a conditional Poisson regression model, avoiding the estimation of the nuisance strata. To allow for zone-specific effects, we propose a conditional Poisson regression model with a random slope, although available frequentist software does not implement this model. Here, we implement our approach in the Bayesian paradigm, which also facilitates the inclusion of spatial patterns in the effect of interest. We also provide a possible extension to deal with overdispersed data. We first introduce the equations of the framework and then illustrate their application to data from a previously published study on the effects of temperature on the risk of motor vehicle crashes. We provide R code and a semi-synthetic dataset to reproduce all analyses presented.

Keywords

Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Estadística matemàtica::Anàlisi multivariant, Biomatemàtica, Time series, Time Factors, Multi-site, Spatial structure, Epidemiologic methods, Classificació AMS::62 Statistics::62H Multivariate analysis, 610, Classificació AMS::92 Biology and other natural sciences::92B Mathematical biology in general, 510, Air Pollution, Anàlisi multivariable, Methods, Humans, Classificació AMS::65 Numerical analysis::65Y Computer aspects of numerical algorithms, Biomathematics, Anàlisi numèrica, Air Pollutants, Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Anàlisi numèrica, Temperature, Bayes Theorem, Multivariate analysis, One-stage, Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Matemàtiques i estadística::Matemàtica aplicada a les ciències, Software, Numerical analysis

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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