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Eastern-European Journal of Enterprise Technologies
Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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Development of a technology of structuring group expert judgments under various types of uncertainty

Authors: Kovalenko, Igor; Shved, Alyona;

Development of a technology of structuring group expert judgments under various types of uncertainty

Abstract

The study considers the problem of structuring expert judgments formed under conditions of uncertainty of different nature and in presence of conflicting expert evidence. The method of aggregating group expert judgments that are formed under conditions of various types of uncertainty helps synthesize the group opinion, taking into account various forms of representing the preferences of experts (interval, fuzzy and crisp expert judgments). The proposed procedure makes it possible to synthesize a group decision in the event that there is a group or several groups of experts in a group of experts who express their preferences using different forms of expert judgments. This approach allows reflecting accurately the expert preferences regarding the object being analysed, without restricting the experts to a rigid form of presenting assessments. In order to analyse the obtained expert information and to get individual expert ratings of the analysed objects, the method of pairwise comparison and its modification were used in the study. It has been established that for the aggregation of crisp expert estimates, more precise combined results can be obtained by applying rules for redistributing conflicts of the theory of plausible and paradoxical reasoning. To aggregate interval expert judgments, one of the combination rules of the theory of evidence is recommended. It has been determined that in order to improve the quality of the aggregate results, it is advisable to establish a procedure for combining expert inputs, for example, taking into account the degree of dissimilarity and the structure of expert evidence. The obtained results are intended to help improve the quality and efficiency of the processes of preparing and making decisions while solving the problems of analysing and structuring expert judgments.

Keywords

експертні оцінки; агрегування експертних оцінок; метод парних порівнянь; правила комбінування, UDC 004.82 : 519.234, expert preferences; aggregation, экспертные предпочтения; агрегирование экспертных оценок; метод парных сравнений; правила комбинирования

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    popularity
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    influence
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    impulse
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Average
Average
Average
gold