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Power-law patterns in sequences of statistically related events preceding to the main event

Степенные закономерности в последовательностях статистически связанных событий, предшествующих главному событию
Authors: Sheremet'eva, O. V.;

Power-law patterns in sequences of statistically related events preceding to the main event

Abstract

Используя статистическую модель связанных событий и данные сейсмического каталога КФ ФИЦ ГС РАН за период 01.01.1962-31.12.2002 (n = 79283 события) для зоны субдукции Курило-Камчатской островной дуги (50°-60° с.ш., 156°-166° в.д., классы 4.1-16.1, глубины 0-600 км) построены последовательности событий, предшествующих главному событию заданной магнитуды и связанных с ним в пространственно-временной области. Проведён статистический анализ наличия степенных закономерностей в этих последовательностях на основании релаксационной модели деформационной активности. Степенные закономерности были выделены только в последовательностях связанных событий, предшествующих главному событию с энергетическим классом меньше 12 (показатель степени 0.5-0.7). Это объясняется большим объёмом выборки для главных событий такого класса и небольшой пространственно-временной областью их подготовки, что уменьшает вероятность попадания афтершоков от более крупных событий, предшествующих главному удару, в рассматриваемые последовательности. Using a statistical model of related events and data from the seismic catalog of the FRC GS RAS for the period 01.01.1962-31.12.2002 (n = 79283 events) for the subduction zone of the Kuril-Кamchatka island arc (50°-60° N, 156°-166° E, classes 4.1-16.1, depths 0-600 km) the sequences of events preceding the main event of a given magnitude and associated with it in the spatio-temporal region are constructed. A statistical analysis of the power laws presence in these sequences was carried out on the basis of the relaxation model of deformation activity. It was possible to obtain power-law patterns in sequences of related events for main events thet energy class is less than 12. The exponent takes the values of 0.5-0.7. The possibility of detecting of power-law patterns for the main events of such an energy class is explained by a large sample size for them and by a by a small spatio-temporal region of event preparation that reduces the probability to got the aftershocks from events with larger energy preceding the one under consideration into the sequence of related events.

Keywords

связанные сейсмические события, модель процессов релаксации, степенные закономерности, related seismic events, model of relaxation processes, Stochastic processes, форшоковые последовательности, статистическая диффузионная модель, foreshock sequences, power laws, statistical diffusion model

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
gold