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Risk Topology Construction Method of Flight Manipulation in Turbulent-Windshear Conditions Based on Multivariate Copula Theory

Authors: Guozhi Wang; Haojun Xu; Binbin Pei; Yuan Xue; Xiaocong Duan;

Risk Topology Construction Method of Flight Manipulation in Turbulent-Windshear Conditions Based on Multivariate Copula Theory

Abstract

Complex weather conditions, especially turbulent-windshear conditions, have severe effects on the landing safety of an aircraft. Based on a distributed human-machine-environment real-time simulation system, virtual landing simulations in turbulent-windshear conditions were carried out using the Monte Carlo method. By analyzing the simulation results, it was determined that the flight parameters that significantly affect the landing safety of an aircraft are the sideslip angle β, descent height ΔH, and angle of attack α. Based on multivariate copula theory, the statistical characteristics of the extreme values of the flight parameters were analyzed, the unknown parameters in the distribution models were identified, and the goodness of fit was tested. The risk of landing in turbulent-windshear conditions was quantitatively evaluated. By applying the quantitative risk evaluation method proposed in this study, the risk topology of flight manipulation for landing in turbulent-windshear conditions was constructed using the pitch angle variation Δθ, yaw angle variation Δψ, and flight distance L. The risk topology can not only greatly improve the situational awareness of the pilot but also provide comprehensive and intuitive guidance for removing aircraft from the impacts of wind-shear.

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Keywords

Monte Carlo method, turbulent-windshear, Complex system simulation, multivariate copula theory, Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering, manipulation risk topology, TK1-9971

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Top 10%
Average
Average
gold