Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts?
Copyright policy )Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts?
Each person’s characteristics may influence that person’s behaviors and outcomes. This study builds and uses a new database to estimate experts’ performance and boldness based on their experience and characteristics. Our study classifies experts providing inflation forecasts based on their education, experience, gender, and environment. We provide alternative interpretations of factors affecting experts’ inflation forecasting performance, boldness, and pessimism by linking behavioral economics, the economics of education, and forecasting literature. The study finds that an expert with previous experience at a central bank appears to have a lower propensity for predicting deflation.
- Ecole des Mines se Saint-Etienne France
- Bank of Israel Israel
- Henan University China (People's Republic of)
- Mines Saint-Etienne France
Panel estimation, JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C5 - Econometric Modeling/C.C5.C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods • Simulation Methods, 330, Survey forecast, [SDV.NEU.PC] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Neurons and Cognition [q-bio.NC]/Psychology and behavior, JEL: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E7 - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics/E.E7.E70 - General, Business Fluctuations, E70, Expert behavior, and Cycles/E.E3.E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications, [STAT.AP] Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP], [SHS.STAT] Humanities and Social Sciences/Methods and statistics, Expert forecast, [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, C53, [STAT.AP]Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP], [SHS.STAT]Humanities and Social Sciences/Methods and statistics, [SDV.NEU.PC]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Neurons and Cognition [q-bio.NC]/Psychology and behavior, ddc:330, E37, JEL: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, Survival analysis, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Global financial crisis, C83, Behavioral economics, C81
Panel estimation, JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C5 - Econometric Modeling/C.C5.C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods • Simulation Methods, 330, Survey forecast, [SDV.NEU.PC] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Neurons and Cognition [q-bio.NC]/Psychology and behavior, JEL: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E7 - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics/E.E7.E70 - General, Business Fluctuations, E70, Expert behavior, and Cycles/E.E3.E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications, [STAT.AP] Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP], [SHS.STAT] Humanities and Social Sciences/Methods and statistics, Expert forecast, [SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, C53, [STAT.AP]Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP], [SHS.STAT]Humanities and Social Sciences/Methods and statistics, [SDV.NEU.PC]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Neurons and Cognition [q-bio.NC]/Psychology and behavior, ddc:330, E37, JEL: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, Survival analysis, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Global financial crisis, C83, Behavioral economics, C81
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