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IEEE Access
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
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IEEE Access
Article . 2025
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Hazard Analysis of Weather Conditions on Distribution Transformer Failures via Cox Proportional Hazard Model

Authors: Cheonkyu Park; Chongeun Cho; Do-In Kim;

Hazard Analysis of Weather Conditions on Distribution Transformer Failures via Cox Proportional Hazard Model

Abstract

As the operational years of power facilities increase, the importance of accurately assessing the remaining lifespan or risk of failures of distribution transformers for the stable power supply has also grown. However, unlike the typical transformer failures, it is not quantified that the failures are also influenced by weather conditions such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, etc. In this regard, we propose the method for investigating the impact of the weather conditions on the failures of distribution transformers to improve the asset management. By employing survival analysis approach, frameworks are employed to quantify the spatial influence of weather conditions on distribution transformer failures, and the weather risk factors are integrated into lifespan indicators to improve maintenance strategies and reliability assessments. Distribution transformer failure cases of over 11 years in South Korea and the corresponding historical weather conditions are configured to enable the survival analysis and derive the meaningful real-world analysis results. Specifically, weather data are quantified and interpolated to configure the spatial data. The notable results underline quantifying significant impact of high summer temperature and humidity in term of hazard ratios. These findings indicate that incorporating historical weather data into asset management indices can significantly enhance the accuracy of transformer lifespan predictions and inform maintenance planning. This study represents the first long-term survival analysis correlating historical weather conditions with transformer failures and provides a guideline for improving power-facility management in the context of environmental changes.

Keywords

weather condition, asset management, Distribution transformers, cox proportional hazards model, Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering, survival analysis, TK1-9971

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
gold