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Changes in the flow of rivers of the Crimean peninsula in the second half of the XX – early XXI centuries

Изменения стока рек Крымского полуострова во второй половине XX – начале XXI веков

Changes in the flow of rivers of the Crimean peninsula in the second half of the XX – early XXI centuries

Abstract

Крым относится к регионам с существенным недостатком водных ресурсов. Поэтому для обеспечения водоснабжения населенных пунктов, промышленных и сельскохозяйственных предприятий в Крыму создано 23 водохранилища и около 2 000 оросительных прудов. В этих условиях важным вопросом становится рациональное использование речного стока, в том числе учет закономерностей его пространственно-временного распределения. В связи с достаточно контрастным делением территории полуострова на горную и равнинную части пространственное распределение стока отличается крайней неравномерностью. Наиболее высокие значения среднего годового модуля речного стока (более 20 л/с·км2) отмечаются в горных районах, а наименьшие (около 0,1 л/с·км2) – в степных. Выявлено существенное влияние на речной сток изъятия воды для различных нужд, которое сопоставимо с остающимися после него расходами воды, а в некоторых случаях и превосходящее их. Многолетние изменения стока происходят на всех реках Крыма достаточно согласованно. Коэффициенты корреляции между рядами средних годовых расходов воды во всех случаях статистически достоверны. В колебаниях годового стока выявлена цикличность. На многих реках с длительным периодом наблюдений отмечаются статистически достоверные ритмы длительностью 7–8 лет. В режиме стока рек Крымского полуострова отмечены разнонаправленные тенденции. Наибольшее увеличение средних годовых расходов произошло в равнинной части бассейна реки Салгир. На большинстве рек западного склона Крымских гор средние годовые расходы воды понизились. Увеличение стока на реках бассейна реки Салгир не подтверждается режимом атмосферных осадков, в котором отсутствуют положительный тренд и их повышенные значения в 1990-е и в начале 2000-х годов, что отчетливо проявляется в режиме стока этих рек. Выявленные тенденции изменения стока и на многих других реках не могут быть признаны естественными, поскольку на большинство рек Крымского полуострова оказывается существенное антропогенное воздействие. Crimea belongs to the regions with a significant shortage of water resources. Therefore, 23 reservoirs and about 2,000 irrigation ponds have been created in Crimea to provide water supply to settlements, industrial and agricultural enterprises. Under these conditions, an important issue is the rational use of river flow, including consideration of the regularities of its spatial and temporal distribution. Due to a rather contrasting division of the peninsula's territory into mountainous and plain parts, the spatial distribution of runoff is extremely uneven. The highest values of the average annual modulus of river runoff (more than 20 l/s·km2) are observed in mountain areas and the lowest ones (about 0.1 l/s·km2) – in steppe areas. There is a significant impact on the river flow of water withdrawal for various needs, which is comparable with the remaining water discharge after it, and in some cases even exceeds them. Multiyear changes in runoff occur in all rivers of the Crimea in a fairly consistent manner. The correlation coefficients between the series of average annual water discharge in all cases are statistically reliable. Cyclicity is revealed in the fluctuations of the annual runoff. Statistically reliable rhythms lasting 7–8 years are observed on many rivers with a long observation period. Divergent trends have been noted in the flow regime of the rivers of the Crimean Peninsula. The greatest increase in the average annual flow rates occurred in the plain part of the Salgir River basin. On most rivers of the western slope of the Crimean mountains, the average annual water discharge has decreased. Increased flow of the rivers of the Salgir basin is not confirmed by the regime of atmospheric precipitation, in which there is no positive trend and its increased values in the 1990s and early 2000s, which is clearly evident in the flow regime of these rivers. The identified trends of flow changes in many other rivers cannot be recognized as natural, bec

Keywords

trends, anthropogenic impact, антропогенное влияние, river runoff, cyclicity, water withdrawal, тренды, Crimea, водозабор, цикличность, Крым, речной сток

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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Average
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