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Economy of Region
Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
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Economy of Region
Article . 2024
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Examining the Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainties on the Stock Market Index: Analysis by Nonlinear ARDL Method for G7 Countries

Authors: E. Fendoğlu; M. A. Polat;

Examining the Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainties on the Stock Market Index: Analysis by Nonlinear ARDL Method for G7 Countries

Abstract

Uncertainties are important factors that influence the decisions made by societies. Economic uncertainties closely affect society’s consumption and investment behaviour. Rising stock markets increase investors’ confidence, resulting in more purchases and higher stock prices and, in this context, an increase in consumer spending. When stock prices decrease, company investments are also negatively affected as consumer spending declines. Thus, increases and decreases in stock prices affect the general economy as they affect business confidence and consumers. The study analyses the effect of uncertainty in economic policies on stock markets, leading to a decrease in investor confidence in the economy. Such effects in G7 countries were examined using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for the period 1998:M05–2020:M09. This method was able to capture symmetries and asymmetries in the relationship between economic policy uncertainties and the stock markets. The results showed that heightened uncertainty in economic policy in Japan has a significantly negative effect on the stock market index, but in Germany and Italy, it has a significantly positive effect. Rising interest rates have negatively affected the stock market index in the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, and the United Kingdom. The increase in the industrial production index is positively related to the stock market index in the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, and France. Additionally, uncertainties in economic policy have asymmetric impacts on the stock market index in the United States, Canada, Japan and Italy, and symmetrical impacts in Germany, France and the United Kingdom.

Keywords

INVESTOR, STOCK EXCHANGE, ИНДЕКСЫ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОГО ПРОИЗВОДСТВА, НЕЛИНЕЙНАЯ МОДЕЛЬ АВТОРЕГРЕССИИ И РАСПРЕДЕЛЕННОГО ЛАГА, ИНВЕСТОР, NONLINEAR ARDL, INTEREST RATES, ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY, 7 DEVELOPED ECONOMIES (G7), INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDICES, БОЛЬШАЯ СЕМЕРКА (G7), Regional economics. Space in economics, ФОНДОВАЯ БИРЖА, 7 developed economies (G7), investor, interest rates, industrial production indices, stock exchange, economic policy uncertainty, nonlinear ARDL, HT388, ПРОЦЕНТНЫЕ СТАВКИ, НЕОПРЕДЕЛЕННОСТЬ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
gold