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Infectious Disease Modelling
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Infectious Disease Modelling
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Wonder drugs and where to use them: a forecast of ivermectin's impact on malaria in Africa

Authors: Scott Greenhalgh; Ahmani Roman; Ashley Provencher;

Wonder drugs and where to use them: a forecast of ivermectin's impact on malaria in Africa

Abstract

A study in Burkina Faso revealed ivermectin inhibits malaria transmission by killing malaria parasites and mosquitoes. However, it is unknown what effect this drug will have on the malaria transmission intensities of the rest of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To address this issue, we created a mathematical model using malaria transmission data from 41 SSA countries to evaluate the antimalarial benefits of a mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To account for ivermectin's effect on malaria, we incorporate estimates of its ability to inhibit malaria transmission and kill mosquitoes. We consider scenarios where 0, 12.5 %, 25.0 %, and 50.0 % of the population receive ivermectin over five years and estimate malaria incidence averted, disability-adjusted life years saved, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Our findings show that an MDA of ivermectin to 12.5 %, 25 %, or 50 % of the population annually averts 248.7, 261.4, and 288.7 incidences per thousand people and saves 5.4, 5.7, and 6.3 disability-adjusted life years, respectively. These values indicate that an MDA of ivermectin would be cost-effective in 41, 18, and 6 countries, and very cost-effective in 22, 6, and 3 countries for the 12.5 %, 25 %, and 50 % scenarios. Altogether, our results indicate that ivermectin would prevent a substantial number of malaria incidences and save disability-adjusted life years in the majority of SSA. Therefore, an MDA of ivermectin would greatly aid in ongoing malaria control efforts and should be considered strongly as a complementary intervention to current malaria protocols.

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Keywords

Ivermectin, Mathematical model, Mass drug administration, Plasmodium falciparum, Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216, Article, Malaria, Disability-adjusted life-years

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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