To evaluate the diagnostic value of signal intensity (SI)-selected volumetry findings in T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as a potential biomarker for predicting pathological complete response (pCR) to preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in patients with rectal cancer.Forty consecutive patients with pCR after preoperative CRT were compared with 80 age- and sex-matched non-pCR patients in a case-control study. SI-selected tumor volume was measured on post-CRT T2-weighted MRI, which included voxels of the treated tumor exceeding the SI (obturator internus muscle SI + [ischiorectal fossa fat SI - obturator internus muscle SI] × 0.2). Three blinded readers independently rated five-point pCR confidence scores and compared the diagnostic outcome with SI-selected volumetry findings. The SI-selected volumetry protocol was validated in 30 additional rectal cancer patients.The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of SI-selected volumetry for pCR prediction was 0.831, with an optimal cutoff value of 649.6 mm3 (sensitivity 0.850, specificity 0.725). The AUC of the SI-selected tumor volume was significantly greater than the pooled AUC of readers (0.707, p < 0.001). At this cutoff, the validation trial yielded an accuracy of 0.87.SI-selected volumetry in post-CRT T2-weighted MRI can help predict pCR after preoperative CRT in patients with rectal cancer.• Fibrosis and viable tumor MRI signal intensities (SIs) are difficult to distinguish. • T2 SI-selected volumetry yields high diagnostic performance for assessing pathological complete response. • T2 SI-selected volumetry is significantly more accurate than readers and non-SI-selected volumetry. • Post-chemoradiation therapy T2-weighted MRI SI-selected volumetry facilitates prediction of pathological complete response.